Geography C32 (Cross-listed as Development Studies C10)
Introduction to Development Studies: Poverty, Development, and Globalization in Theory and History
Fall 2005



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Lecture Notes

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1. T, 9/6 5. T, 9/20 9. T, 10/4 13. T, 10/18 17. T, 11/1 21. T, 11/15 25. T, 11/29
2. Th, 9/8 6. Th, 9/22 10. Th, 10/6 14. Th, 10/20 18. Th, 11/3 22. Th, 11/17 26. Th, 12/1
3. T, 9/13 7. T, 9/27 11. T, 10/11 15. T, 10/25 19. T, 11/8 23. T, 11/22 27. T, 12/6
4. Th, 9/15 8. Th, 9/29 12. Th, 10/13 16. Th, 10/27 20. Th, 11/10 24. Th, 11/24 28. Th, 12/8

1. Lecture of T, 9/6
I. Trends in World Poverty*
• The number of people living on less than $1 a day worldwide has decreased from 1.2 billion (1990) to 1.1 billion (2001).

• However, excluding China, that number has increased from 841 million to 877 million.

• The most significant reduction in poverty has been in East Asia and the Pacific, where both the total number and the proportion of people living on less than $1 a day has decreased by close to half.

• The proportion of people living in absolute poverty has decreased from 27.9% to 21.1% worldwide. However, excluding China, it has only decreased to 22.5%.

• South Asia has experienced a relatively small reduction in poverty.

• In sub-Saharan Africa, the number of people living on less than $1 a day has increased from 227 million, to 313 million; and the proportion has increased from 44.6% to 46.4%.

• The Middle East and North Africa have also experienced a slight increase in both incidence of poverty.

• Europe (mostly in former socialist/transition countries) has experienced a major increase in poverty (from 2 million to 18 million people; 0.5 to 3.6%).

• Estimates for the number of people living on less than $2 a day are dramatically higher: 864 million in East Asia, over 1 billion in South Asia, and 2.7 billion worldwide.

*These estimates are based on widely used World Bank data. However, the accuracy of these data has been questioned on both conceptual and methodological grounds.

Q: What are poverty estimates used for?

II. Measures of Poverty
• income poverty
What are the limitations of this measure?
• per capita GDP the total output of goods and services produced by an economy divided by the total population
• per capita GNI is GDP plus the INCOME earned by residents from investments abroad divided by the total population. GNI is now commonly used to estimate per capita income.
• purchasing power parity (PPP) is the exchange rate that equates the price of a basket of identical traded goods and services in two countries. Income estimates adjusted to PPP are usually higher in developing countries. Income reported in PPP adjusted dollars accounts for price differences between countries.
• the Big Mac Index
• UNDP’s Human Development Index is a composite measure of standard of living based on life expectancy and education as well as income
• vulnerability


III. Causes of Poverty
Why do some countries and regions suffer a much greater poverty than others?
- avoiding environmental determinism
- physical/resource limitations
- historical
- political
- social
- economic structures (at all levels from local to international)
- all of the above are interrelated in complex and context-specific ways

2. Lecture of Th, 9/8
Global Economic Inequality
• The ratio of wealth owned by the richest 20% to the poorest 20%:
In 1960 it was 30:1.
In 1990 it was 60:1,
Today it is about 75:1

• The richest 10% of the US population (25 million people) has total income equal to the combined income of the poorest 43% of the entire world population (2.5 billion people).

• The combined assets of the richest 200 people is over $1 trillion – more than the combined income of 41% of the world’s people.

• The combined assets of the richest 3 people exceeds the combined GDP of all the least developed countries.

• According to a UNDP study, over the past two decades, inequality has been increasing in 48 countries (of 73 studied), constant in 16, and declining in 9.

• The Gini coefficient is a measure of income inequality where:
0 represents perfect equality
1 represents absolute inequality

• The Gini index is the coefficient times 100 (e.g. .54 ‡ 54).

• There is debate as to if and why global inequality is increasing. Interpretations vary according to methods and units of measurement (i.e. GNI vs. PPP; country vs. individual level, and whether countries are weighted by their population size)

Key readings for this week:
Poverty and Development Ch. 1
Annual Editions “More or Less Equal”
No-Nonsense Guide to World Poverty Chs. 2
Reader “The Rising Inequality of World Income Distribution.”

For more on this see “The Global Divide” by Marc Lee. Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives, 2002. (www.policyalternatives.ca)

3. Lecture of T, 9/13
Making of the Third World I: Colonialism

Key readings: Poverty and Development Ch. 11;
Reader: Hall, ‘The West and the Rest.’

I. Political origins of the term “Third World”
• the non-aligned movement
• Bandung Conference (1955)
• United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
• TW calls for a New International Economic Order (1970s)
The political goals of the countries originally identifying themselves as part of the Third World were to avoid being drawn into the Cold War and to promote fair trade.

II. European Expansion and the Capitalist World System
• driven by competition among European powers
• emergence of “core” and “periphery”
• know major periods of colonial expansion and incorporation.
• the timing of colonial incorporation is crucial. When and how different regions of the world were incorporated into the expanding world system continues to shape their particular development challenges and trajectories today.

III. Forms of Colonial Rule
• direct vs. indirect rule (e.g. India vs. Nigeria)
• settler vs. peasant-based production (Latin America vs. West Africa)
• spheres of influence (e.g. China’s treaty ports)

IV. Impacts of Colonialism

Major Periods of Colonial Expansion
I. c.1500 - 1760 Mercantile phase
- dominated by Spain and Portugal (the Iberian powers)
- massive extraction of resources using forced labor and feudal-type structures
- the encomienda system in Latin America
- begining of West Indian plantation slavery
- the “Columbian exchange” of genetic material, plants, diseases
- accumulated wealth fuels industrial revolution
Countries colonized in this phase: Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Hispaniola (Dominican Repubic and Haiti), Cuba, Indonesia, South Africa
II. c.1760 - 1950 Colonial phase
A. c.1770 - 1880 Age of Informal Empire (industrial capitalism)
- shift of control to NW European powers (England, France, Holland)
- expansion driven by demands and technology of the Industrial Revolution
- N. Atlantic triangular trade
- tea-opium trade established between India, China, and England
- both direct and indirect colonial rule
Countries colonized in this phase: Jamaica, India, China’s treaty ports
B. c. 1880 - 1945 Classic Age of Imperialism (monopoly capitalism)
- the Berlin Conference (1884) and the Scramble for Africa
- imposition artificial borders, ‘artificial states”
- expansion driven by private companies and competitive finance capital (following first world economic recession) in search of new, exclusive markets
- need to “export” surplus populations displaced by industrial revolution
Countries colonized during this phase: Most of sub-Saharan Africa and much of SW Asia

III. c.1950 - 1980 Decolonization (“neo-colonialism”)
- colonies become a political and financial burden
- resource and market access assured through neo-colonial alliances and unequal trade

IV. c.1980 – present Globalization and “neo/post-imperialism”(?)

Impacts of Colonialism (key questions to ask)
• Who was the colonial power? What was the style of rule?
• How was revenue extracted?
• Were there large numbers of settlers?
• What was produced? How and by whom? (e.g. peasants, coffee)
• How were local social organizations altered?
• What traditional methods of production were displaced or destroyed?
• What is the relationship between colonial political borders and pre-existing societies?
• Who was left in control?
• What are the colonial legacies (land distribution, trade dependencies, political organization, agricultural production, migration, etc.).

Summary points on "The West and the Rest"

The ways we talk about the Third World have long histories.
Hall traces the historical emergence of “The West” as a discourse - a way of talking about or representing geography that has a particular history. He argues that, as a discourse, “the West” is inseparable from “the Rest” because the West constructs its self-image through comparisons with the Rest

(1) The New World was a “space of projection” for European fantasies and pre-conceived notions of what the world was like.

(2) Many of these projections involved splitting the world into binary dualisms: civilized-savage, healthy-unhealthy, advanced-backwards.

(3) These ideas had real material consequences. For example, in the 15th century, whether the inhabitants of the New World were seen as noble savages or “less than human” determined whether they could be enslaved.

4) Contemporary development discourses still rely on representations of the Third World as “the Others,” and on comparative dualisms of developed-underdeveloped, democratic-undemocratic, advanced-industrializing, etc.

Q: What are the consequences of this today?
Q: Where else do you see binary dualisms of other places represented?
4. Lecture of Th, 9/15
Impacts of Colonialism
A. Early incorporation under Mercantilism (1500 – 1760)
• demographic: large numbers of European settlers in NW; decimation of indigenous populations; beginning of slave trade to the Americas
• economic: extraction-based economies (mining); supported by hacienda system of agriculture; trade in primary commodities with Europe
• land rights: huge tracts of land expropriated from local people and concentrated under single owners; latifundia/minifundia pattern of extremely unequal land ownership; mirrored feudal system
• political: early wars for independence waged by European settlers against the Crown
• social: indigenous people marginalized (socially, economically, spatially)

B. Incorporation during rise of industrial capitalism (1760 –1880)
• demographic: height of the slave trade, followed by indentured labor system; indigenous populations of smaller Caribbean islands destroyed; smaller settler populations
• economic: plantation system dominant, agriculture centralized and industrialized; production oriented entirely for export to Europe; height of “king sugar”; everything is oriented around the plantations (roads, water, labor, power); dependence on a single commodity exports
• land rights: huge areas cleared for plantations, massive deforestation, soil depletion, massive land concentration by plantation owners, subsistence producers on physical and ecological margins of the plantations
• political: lingering dependency on Europe; late independence; fragmentation
• social: social stratification linking race and class; colonial education

C. Late incorporation under monopoly capitalism (1880 – WW I)
• demographic: intense exploitation of local labor, influx of Europeans to some settler colonies, large scale displacement and relocation of indigenous populations
• land rights: displacement and marginalization of Africans in settler colonies; small farmers were left on their lands in peasant-based colonies, but taxed and forced to produce new crops for export (peanuts, oil palms)
• economic: traditional production reoriented towards new export crops, economies drained of surplus, local industry suppressed, environmental degradation, dependencies on new imports.
• political: in settler colonies, conflicts between the settlers and the indigenous groups; in indirectly ruled colonies, conflicts between the ethnic groups given unequal power within artificial borders.
• social: new social divisions created; local knowledge and social practices deligitimized; “colonial mentality”; rise of resistance movements

Impacts of Colonialism
A. Early incorporation under Mercantilism (1500 – 1760)
• demographic: large numbers of European settlers in NW; decimation of indigenous populations; beginning of slave trade to the Americas
• economic: extraction-based economies (mining); supported by hacienda system of agriculture; trade in primary commodities with Europe
• land rights: huge tracts of land expropriated from local people and concentrated under single owners; latifundia/minifundia pattern of extremely unequal land ownership; mirrored feudal system
• political: early wars for independence waged by European settlers against the Crown
• social: indigenous people marginalized (socially, economically, spatially)

B. Incorporation during rise of industrial capitalism (1760 –1880)
• demographic: height of the slave trade, followed by indentured labor system; indigenous populations of smaller Caribbean islands destroyed; smaller settler populations
• economic: plantation system dominant, agriculture centralized and industrialized; production oriented entirely for export to Europe; height of “king sugar”; everything is oriented around the plantations (roads, water, labor, power); dependence on a single commodity exports
• land rights: huge areas cleared for plantations, massive deforestation, soil depletion, massive land concentration by plantation owners, subsistence producers on physical and ecological margins of the plantations
• political: lingering dependency on Europe; late independence; fragmentation
• social: social stratification linking race and class; colonial education

C. Late incorporation under monopoly capitalism (1880 – WW I)
• demographic: intense exploitation of local labor, influx of Europeans to some settler colonies, large scale displacement and relocation of indigenous populations
• land rights: displacement and marginalization of Africans in settler colonies; small farmers were left on their lands in peasant-based colonies, but taxed and forced to produce new crops for export (peanuts, oil palms)
• economic: traditional production reoriented towards new export crops, economies drained of surplus, local industry suppressed, environmental degradation, dependencies on new imports.
• political: in settler colonies, conflicts between the settlers and the indigenous groups; in indirectly ruled colonies, conflicts between the ethnic groups given unequal power within artificial borders.
• social: new social divisions created; local knowledge and social practices deligitimized; “colonial mentality”; rise of resistance movements

5. Lecture of T, 9/20
Forms of Colonial Rule: Three Examples from Africa
Colony
Type of Colony
Type of Administration
Type of production
Land Regime
Labor Regime
Kenya
Settler
Direct Rule
Plantation crops
Concentration
Mobilized through forced settlement and taxation
Nigeria
Peasant
Indirect rule
Peasant-grown commodities
“Customary”
“Customary” + taxation
Congo
Extractive
Absolutist
Extractive (rubber and mining)
Concessions to companies
Forced / semi-proletarian

Interrogating Colonialism – key questions to ask:

• Who was the colonial power? What was their style of rule (direct/indirect)?
• How was revenue extracted?
• Were there large numbers of settlers?
• What was produced? How was it produced? By whom?
• What was the primary export market?
• How were local social organizations altered?
• What traditional methods of production were displaced or destroyed?
• How was population distribution affected?
• Who was left in control?
• What is the relationship between colonial political borders and pre-existing societies?
• What are the legacies in terms of land distribution, trade dependencies, political organization, agricultural production, migration, etc.

6. Lecture of Th, 9/22
The Colonial International Division of Labor

Historically, Third World countries have tended to specialize in primary commodity export production, in contrast to First World nations that specialize in manufactured goods. One measure of development is the degree of economic shift toward manufacturing.

Primary commodities are unprocessed agricultural products and other raw materials such as timber, fisheries, minerals, and oil.

Some Colonies and their Primary Exports:
Brazil (Portugal) sugar
Ceylon (Britain) tea
Egypt (Britain) cotton
Ghana (Britain) cocoa
Haiti (France0 sugar
India (Britain) cotton, opium
Indonesia (Holland) rubber, tobacco
Senegal (France) peanuts
South Africa (Britain) gold, diamonds

Impacts of the colonial international division of labor:
1) stimulated European industrialization;
2) forced non-Europeans to specialize in a limited number of primary products;
3) undermined traditional production systems, craft industries, and replaced mixed farming with export mono-culture.

Key point: The colonial legacy of primary commodity export production was a major economic problem for many newly independent countries during the period of decolonization, and remains a major development obstacle for much of the Third World today.

Key Questions on Decolonization:

1. When did it happen? Early during the age of informal empire or late, during the Cold War? With what political and economic consequences?
2. Was the transition to independence peaceful or violent?
3. Who emerged in control of the state? Whose interests did they represent?
4. What economic options and problems did the country face at independence?
5. What kinds of post-colonial politics emerged?
Decolonization and Independence

Decolonization is the achievement of national aspirations for political independence from a colonial power. Like colonialism, decolonization happened in different ways and at different times.

First Wave of Decolonization (1790-1840)
Focus: New World/Latin America
Causes: American, French, and Haitian Revolutions; Napoleonic Wars in Europe weakened Spain and Portugal; growing creole nationalism and independence struggles in New World.
Three major wars for indpendence:
Mexico (led by Father Miguel Hidalgo)
Northern S. America (led by Simon Bolivar)
Souther S. America (led by Jose de San Martin)

Latin American Independence Dates:
Haiti
Chile
Colombia
Venezuela
Paraguay
Argentina
Mexico
Costa Rica
El Salvador
1804
1810
1811/1830
1811/1830
1811/1814
1816
1821
1821/1838
1821/1838
Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
Panama
Peru
Brazil
Ecuador
Bolivia
Uruguay
1821/1838
1821/1838
1821/1838
1821/1903
1821
1822
1822/1830
1825
1828

Challenges facing newly independent Latin American states:
• economic dependence
• territorial consolidation
• internal political instability
• geopolitical recogniation
• economic dislocation and capital flight after independence wars
• new trade relationships encouraged export production, but
• lack of infrastructure hindered development of internal markets
• small elite class remained in power

Second Wave of Decolonization (1945-1970):
Focus: Africa and Asia
Causes:
- WW I
- The Depression
- WW II financially exhausted Europe
- diminishing political support in metropoles
- rise of strong independence movements in colonies

Violent Struggles for Independence:
Algeria, Kenya, Zimbabwe (Southern Rhodesia)

Some Indepedence Dates in Second Wave:
1922 Egypt
1945 Syria and Lebanon
1947 India and Pakistan (M. Gandhi)
1948 Burma, Ceylon (Sri Lanka), Indonesia, creation of Israel
1957 Ghana (Kwame Nkruhma)
1960 Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Senegal, Congo (Patrice Lumumba)
1962 Algeria (Franz Fanon), Jamaica
1963 Kenya (Jomo Kenyatta)
1964 Tanzania (Julias Nyerere)
1975 Angola

Challenges Facing Newly Independent States:
• primary commodity export dependence
• poor and uneven infrastructure
• insufficient educational institutions
• failure to fulfill the aspirations of nationalism
• rise of military dictatorships
• civil wars
• Cold War politics

The Third Wave: Several Caribbean and Pacific states gained independence in late 1970s and early 1980s. A few territories remain under colonial control.


7. Lecture of T, 9/27
Rise of the Development Project

Post-War Restructuring (1945 to mid-1950s)
• Bretton Woods Agreements and Institutions (1944)
-The Gold Standard (ties US currency to price of gold)
- The International Montetary Fund (IMF) for short-term loans
- The World Bank for loans to promote development
- General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)
• United Nations Charter 1945
• The Marshall Plan (US grants to rebuild Europe)
• Public Law 480 1954 (US food aid/cheap food exports)
• Beginning of Cold War and the Non-Aligned Movement

The “Golden Years” (late 1950s through 1960s)
• Height of decolonization period
• UN declares First Development Decade in 1962
• UNDP established in 1965
• Foreign Direct Investment significant but uneven
• Economic growth “at all costs” is dominant ideology
• import substitution industrialization (ISI) is dominant strategy
• Dependency Theorists critique FW development paradigm

Debt-Led Growth (1970s)
• US goes off the gold standard in 1971
• OPEC triggers first oil crisis in 1973
• TW countries take out large private (“petro-dollar”) loans
• primary exporters continue to suffer declining terms of trade
• World Bank funds big infrastructure projects
• TW countries call for a New International Economic Order
• New focus on poverty and “basic needs”

8. Lecture of Th, 9/29
See above lecture notes
9. Lecture of T, 10/4
Debt crisis outline
I. The Debt Crisis (1980s the “lost decade”)

A. Causes
• US goes off the gold standard in 1971
• OPEC triggers first oil crisis in 1973
• private banks invest excess “petro-dollars” in TW projects
• terms of trade continue to decline
• TW foreign debts increase dramatically, b/c of:
- commercial borrowing for big development projects during 1970s (“debt-led development”)
- rising price of oil and imports
- interest rates raised in late 1970s (to control US inflation)
• FW decreases spending on foreign aid

B. Consequences
• IMF and World Bank take over lending, impose conditionalities (austerity measures and structural adjustment policies)
• free-market neoliberalism becomes dominant ideology
• growth in indirect foreign investment in TW (“shallow,” less stable)
• social impacts

C. Debt Relief
• On Septembr 25, the IMF and the World Bank formally agreed to to cancel up to $55 billion of the debts owed to them by 38 of the poorest countries.
• The first 18 countries to benefit will be:
Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guyana, Honduras, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia.
• There are conditions:
1. The debts will be cancelled, but so will loan $$ that was being leant to pay the interest on the debts.
2. The World Bank is to be compensated for writing off the debts with additional contributions by member countries.
3. In order to qualify for debt forgiveness, countries must meet certain conditions, including neoliberal deregulation.

II. The 1990s: Market Triumphalism
• post-Cold War political and economic restructuring
• emergence of new group of poor “transition” nations
• East Asian financial crisis
• China increasingly open to trade and foreign investment
• new discourse on “sustainable development” gains currency
• anti-globalization movements
• free-market neoliberalism remains dominant ideology

III. Elements of Neoliberal Economic Policy
(“The Washington Consensus”)
1. reduce trade barriers (quotas, tariffs)
2. promote export production (over production for domestic economy)
3. reduce government spending (cutback social services, education, health care)
4. encourage or require privatization (sale of state-owned enterprises)
5. facilitate free flow of capital, encourage foreign investment

IV. What is the international context for development today?
• post 9/11 politics and conflicts, “war on terrorism” military spending and interventions
• China emerging as major economic power, capital flocking to China’s cheap labor pool
• debt relief movement for poorest nations somewhat successful
• the Doha “development round” of trade talks continues; some agreement reached on reducing FW agricultural subsidies
• the Washington Consensus continues as dominant economic ideology

IMF and World Bank Conditionalities
IMF: Stabilization Programs (short-term “austerity measures”)
(1) Devalue currency (promotes exports, but makes imports more expensive)
(2) Cut budget deficits, especially cuts in social spending on public programs (including health and education)
(3) Force down wages to make the country more attractive to foreign investors
(4) Raise interest rates (to control inflation, but this also hurts small and medium businesses, may plunge countries into recession)

World Bank: Structural Adjustment Policies (long-term)
(1) Market liberalization (get rid of the trade barriers that supported ISI)
(2) Privatize state-owned companies and resources (considered inefficient)
(3) Cut subsidies to ISI producers and promote export producers instead (e.g. non-tradtional agricultural exports; low-wage assembly factories)

Total External Debt

(in US $ millions)

Country

1997

2002

% of GNI

% private

Argentina

$128,411

$132,314

138%

79%

Bolivia

     5,237

     4,867

  64

22

Brazil

  198,024

  227,932

  53

83

China

  146,697

  168,255

  13

58

Colombia

    31,941

    33,853

  43

71

Congo, D.R.

    12,337

      8,726

159

  2

Ecuador

    15,418

    16,452

  73

56

Ethiopia

    10,077

      6,522

109

  2

Guatemala

      3,876

      4,676

  20

17

Haiti

      1,052

      1,248

  36

  0

India

    94,317

   104,429

  21

50

Indonesia

  136,161

   132,208

 80

44

Jamaica

     3,761

      5,477

 75

49

Malawi

     2,228

      2,912

156

 0

Philippines

   50,727

    59,342

 71

63

South Africa

   25,272

   25,041

25

99

St. Lucia

       153

       415

67

40

Venezuela

   35,718

   32,563

36

85

 

 

Region

Total Debt in 2002

(US $millions)

% of regional GNI

East Asia/Pacific

497,354

28%

Latin America/Caribbean

727,944

45

Middle East/N. Africa

189,010

33

South Asia

168,349

26

Sub-Saharan Africa

210,350

70

Middle income

1,815,384

37

Low income

523,464

49

Heavily indebted poor

188,582

86

All developing countries

2,338,848

39

Source: World Bank

10. Lecture of Th, 10/6

Key terms and concepts for DS 10 midterm

Disclaimer: Use this in conjunction with your lecture notes and outlines. We do not 100 percent guarantee that this is a perfectly complete and exhaustive list. However, we are pretty darn sure that if you are able to define, discuss, or otherwise identify most of these terms you will do well on the exam.

development
GDP and GNI
purchasing power parity (PPP)
Big Mac Index
inequality
Gini coefficient
income poverty
Human Development Index
vulnerability

Third World
non-aligned movement
tropicality
representations of the Third World
binary discourses of the other
core/periphery
dependency theory

mercantilism
colonialism
encomienda system
plantation system
phases of incorporation
triangular trades
Scramble for Africa
Berlin Conference (1884)
direct vs. indirect rule
settler vs. peasant-based colonial production
forced commodification
extractive economies
spheres of influence
colonial legacies
primary commodity exports
international division of labor
decolonization (timing, type of transition)

Bretton Woods (institutions and agreements)
Marshall Plan
Cold War
gold standard
ISI
oil crisis
petro-dollars
debt crisis
oil boom/oil bust

structural adjustment
austerity measures
neoliberalism
deregulation
privatization
Washington Consensus
direct vs. indirect foreign investment
debt relief

World Bank
IMF
UNDP
WTO
ACP countries
Lomé Agreement
Free Trade Zone
ODA

Essay Topics: Choose ONE to prepare in advance. Note that the precise wording of the questions on the exam will be more specific.

1. Role of colonialism in the making of the Third World. Be familiar with the different forms of colonial rule, timing of incorporation into the world system, impacts of colonialism, and colonial legacies. Be able to support your argument with examples from at least two different regions (e.g. Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa, or Asia).

2. Post-WW II origins of development as an international project. Be prepared to discuss the goals of Bretton Woods, the geopolitical context of the first two development decades, the major institutions involved, and the dominant development strategies. What worked? What didn’t work? Which countries benefited the most?

3. Causes and consequences of the debt crisis. When, where, and why did it happen? How did it affect heavily indebted countries? How did it change the objectives and role of First World development institutions? Be prepared to use examples from Life and Debt and Economics of Empire to support your answer.

Key Readings: These are the most important readings and those most closely connected to lectures. You should read more on the essay topic you choose.

Meanings and Views of Development
• Poverty and Development Ch. 2
• Reader “Millennium Development Goals,” “The Nature of Development”
Poverty and Inequality: Trends and Measures
• Reader “The Rising Inequality of World Income Distribution,” (“The Big Mac Index”)
• No-Nonsense Guide to World Poverty Chs. 2 and 3
Making of the Third World
• Poverty and Development Chs. 11 (and end of 12)
• Reader “The Three Worlds,” (“The West and the Rest,”) “
The Rise of Development: Policies and Institutions
• Poverty and Development Ch. 13
• Reader “The History of an Idea”

Neoliberalism and Aid
• Annual Editions “Ranking the Rich”
• Reader “The Economics of Empire,” “Aid: The International Contribution”
13. Lecture of T, 10/18
Demography Terms

The Basic Demographic Equation FP=SP+B–D+I-O

FP is final population
SP is starting population
B is births
D is deaths
I is in-migration
O is out-migration

Rate of Natural Increase (RNI): The amount by which a population increases from one year to the next without accounting for migration. It is usually expressed as a percent.
RNI = CBR (crude birth rate) – CDR (crude death rate)
CBR/CDR is the number of births/deaths per 1,000 people in one year.

Doubling Time: The number of years for a population to double at its current rate of growth. Calculate doubling time by dividing 69.3 by the RNI. (or use 70 to simplify). This is not a prediction of future growth but rather a representation of potential growth at a given rate.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the sum of age specific birth rates for a given population (i.e. the average number of children a woman would have IF she were to have children at the prevailing age-specific rates as she passed through her reproductive years).

Replacement Level Fertility describes the average number of births per woman that would lead to zero population growth (2.1 for industrialized countries, up to 2.4 for developing countries with high mortality levels). If a country’s average fertility remains below replacement level for an extended period of time, its population will decline.

Demographic Momentum: The continued growth in absolute numbers due to a young population age structure (e.g. with significant proportion under 15) in spite of a reduction in the population growth rate.

Dependency Ratio: The ratio of non-productive members of society to productive working members. Non-productive members are usually considered to be < 15 years, > 65 years, or too sick to work. [Note: This should read “less productive”]

Key Findings from 2004 UN World Population Estimates

• As of mid-2005, world population is estimated at 6.5 billion.
• World population expected to increase by 2.6 billion over next 45 years, leveling off at around 9.1 billion in 2050 (medium estimate).
• Almost all that growth will be in developing countries.
• Global population growth rate is 1.2% (down from 1.4% in 2000).
• However, the annual increment is still about 76 million people.
• The most rapid growth is expected in a few least developed countries most of which are in West and Central Africa (also Afghanistan).
• Populations are declining in Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, and much of Eastern Europe.
• But, future population growth is highly dependent on future fertility (and mortality) trends, which are difficult to predict.
• Average fertility worldwide is 2.6 children per woman (replacement level is 2.1); Fertility level in the “developed world” is 1.56.
• Birth rates are now below replacement level in 23 developing countries (most in Asia and the Caribbean, e.g. China, Cuba).
• Global life expectancy is 65 years; but among least developed countries, it has dropped below 50 years.
• By 2050, 90 developed and 46 developing countries will have median ages over 40 years. The biggest problem for many countries in the future will be aging populations.

World Population Summary Data for Selected Countires
(from Population Reference Bureau World Data Sheet 2005)
Country
Mid-2005 Pop.
(millions)
births per 1,000
deaths per 1,000
TFR
RNI
% <15
Life expectancy
Projected
Pop. 2025
(millions)

Egypt
74.0
26
6
3.2
2.0%
36%
70 yrs
101.1
Niger
14.0
56
22
8.0
3.4%
48%
43 yrs
26.5
Kenya
33.8
38
15
4.9
2.2%
43%
47 yrs
49.4
Congo, DR
60.8
45
14
6.7
3.1%
48%
50 yrs
108.0
S. Africa
46.9
23
16
2.8
0.7%
33%
52 yrs
47.8
USA
296.5
14
8
2.0
0.6%
21%
78 yrs
349.4
Mexico
107.0
23
5
2.6
1.9%
31%
75 yrs
129.4
Cuba
11.3
11
7
1.6
0.4%
21%
77 yrs
11.8
Brazil
184.2
21
7
2.4
1.4%
29%
71 yrs
228.9
Bangladesh
144.2
27
8
3.0
1.9%
35%
61 yrs
190.0
China
1,303.7
12
6
1.6
0.6%
22%
72 yrs
1,478.0
Jamaica
2.7
19
6
2.3
1.3%
31%
73 yrs
3.0

14. Lecture of Th, 10/20
The Demographic Transition Model
The model describes an idealized sequence of stages through which the population structure of societies is expected to pass as they “develop,” ultimately leading to a stable state of low birth and low death rates.

(Note that the model is based on the historical experience of Western Europe and North America during and after the Industrial Revolution.)

Stage I:
high birth, high death
(equiv. to pre-industrial Europe)
Stage II:
high birth, falling death
(equiv. to early industrial Europe, also called the mortality transition)
Stage III:
falling birth, low death
(equiv. To late industrial Europe, also called the fertility transition)
Stage IV:
low birth, low death
(stable state of low growth equiv. to most industrialized countries)
Stave V:
low death, even lower birth rates
(negative growth rate, pop. declining, Russia, Italy are examples)

Limits of the Model
• The precise timing of declines in mortality and fertility rates may vary widely depending on any number of contextual factors and cannot be predicted from the model.

• The model does not account specifically for migration.

• The model is based on the assumption of a simple causal relationship between economic development and demographic change. But on closer examination – even in Europe – causality is not always clear.
• And it is based primarily on demographic changes in 19th century Europe.

Third World countries experiencing demographic transitions today face very different circumstances:

1) population growth rates in many countries are much more rapid now that they were in 19th century Europe;
2) there is much greater demographic momentum in third world countries today;
3) recent mortality transitions have been much faster than in Europe;
4) fertility levels in many countries are or were even higher than in pre-transition Europe
5) less migration is possible now;
6) the rate of change in economic development and education is more rapid;
7) there is a lot more government involvement now, demographic change is planned and sometimes forced by the state;
8) contemporary demographic transitions are occurring in a context of economic and social globalization.

15. Lecture of T, 10/25
World Hunger

I. World Food Supply
• Food production per capita has grown at an average of 5% per decade since 1960.
• Global per capita grain production increased from 1950 to 1984 by 38%, growing faster than population. Since then it has begun to fall slightly behind population growth.
• Enough food is produced for each person to consume at least 2,700 calories per day, if it were evenly distributed.
• Available protein per capita has increased from 65 to 72 grams per person per day since 1960
• Worldwide, people get 48 percent of their calories from grain-based foods
• Almost half of total grain produced is consumed as livestock feed.
• Global grain stocks are now only 20 percent of total annual consumption
• Global trends conceal huge geographic variations. China and India have both experienced large increases in per capita food production since the 1970s, whereas per capita production in sub-Saharan Africa has actually declined.
• Over the past 30 years, there has be a trend toward decreasing national food self-sufficiency in TW countries, because of economic dependency on export crop production and availability of cheap food imports.

II. The Geography of Hunger

• The FAO estimates that 852 million people do not get enough food on a daily basis, an increase of 18 million since 1995.
• One person in five suffers from persistent hunger worldwide, compared to one in three 25 years ago.
• In absolute numbers, South Asia has the most hunger, however, countries in sub-Saharan Africa have a much greater proportion of their populations that are undernourished.
• According to the World Health Organization, 19,000 children die every day as a result of malnutrition and related illnesses.
• Child malnutrition is concentrated in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa where the incidence ranges from 30 to 60 percent.

IIII. Measuring Malnutrition

• Four types of malnutrition:
1) over-nutrition
2) secondary malnutrition
3) nutrient deficiency
4) protein-calorie (or protein-energy) malnutrition

• WHO threshold is 2,200 Calories. However, caloric requirements vary considerably by age, gender, and activity level.

• How do we determine that someone is malnourished?
1) nutritional intake (quantity of food)
2) nutritional status (quality of food)
3) per capita food availability

IV. Food Security

Household/individual food security
• What are the causes of chronic hunger?
• Food security equation: If
[HH food required – HH food produced] x Price of Food < HH Income/Assets
then household is food insecure
• What determines household/individual food security?

• Amartya Sen’s concept of hunger as “a failure of entitlements”

National food security
• Low Income Food Deficit Countries

• PL 480

16/17. Lecture of Th, 10/27 and T, 11/1
National Food Security
• Countries most at risk for famine and food shortages are the Low Income Food Deficit Countries LIFDCs:
• low income per capita < $1,395 (World Bank IDA “cut off”)
• net food importer over the past 3 years

• The FAO currently lists 84 LIFDCs: 27 in Africa, 24 in Asia-Pacific; 4 in Latin America/Caribbean.

• Causes of declining national food self-sufficiency:
1) heavy dependence on a single or a few commodity exports
2) falling commodity export prices relative to imports
3) rising cost of food imports as % of GDP
4) cheap food imports/urban bias

Food Aid and PL 480
• US Public Law 480 (Agricultural Trade Development and Assistance Act of 1954). Original goal was “to lay the basis for a permanent expansion of our exports of agricultural products with lasting benefits to ourselves and peoples and peoples of other lands.”
• Title I Trade and Development Assistance provides for government-to-government sales of U.S. agricultural commodities to developing countries on credit terms or for local currencies.
• Title II Emergency and Private Assistance provides for the donation of U.S. agricultural commodities to meet emergency and nonemergency food needs in other countries, including support for food security goals.
• Title III Food For Development (currently inactive). Donated food was used by governments to generate revenue and fund development projects.
• The Food for Progress (funded through Title I) program was established in 1985 “to support countries that have made commitments to introduce or expand free enterprise elements in their agricultural economies.”

Impacts of Cheap Food Imports
- keep urban wages low
- subsidize industrialization and exports
- suppress prices to local farmers
- may alter people’s diets
- may increase rural to urban migration
- decrease national food self-sufficiency

Trends in Agricultural Trade
• Long-term downward trend in agricultural commodity prices threatens food security in many LDCs.
• For some commodities the price decline recently leveled off (cereals, oil crops, fibers).
• TW food trade balance grew from a surplus of $1 billion in 1970s to a deficit of $11 billion in 2001.
• Rising demand for higher-value food items and processed foods (w/ rising incomes) adds to food import bills.
• 43 countries depend on a single commodity for over 20 percent of their export revenue.
• LDCs spend 54% of their export earnings on food imports, while wealther TW countries only spend 24%.
• For most LIFDCs, the benefits of lower food prices are outweighed by losses of income and employment caused by declining world commodity prices.
• Food trade is increasingly dominated by a small number of large transnational corporations (TNCs).
• The 30 largest supermarket chains account for 1/3 of all commercial grocery sales around the world.
• The price that growers receive for most agricultural commodities is a small fraction of the retail price (1% for coffee, 4% for cotton, 28% for cocoa).

Solutions?
• diversify agricultural exports and other economic sectors
• reform urban bias policies
• increase government support to local farmers
• change how development agencies fund agriculture projects
• develop local agri-business and food processing capacity
• reduce FW barriers to agricultural imports
• support fair trade initiatives
• increase South-South trade


Trade vs. Aid
• FW agricultural subsidies are over $300 billion a year, a major source of “trade distortion” which the US and other FW countries oppose in principle.
• International Aid is just over $50 billion a year.
• US subsidies to cotton farmers are over $3 billion a year.
• The average tariff on imported agricultural good in OECD countries is 60%.
• The new trade accord currently being negotiated in the “Doha Round” aims to dramatically cut FW subsidies and tariffs in return for TW countries opening their markets more for manufactured goods.

For more background on the Doha Round see Annual Editions articles 8, 9, and 10. For updates watch news websites.

Characteristics of Green Revolution HYV Seeds
• Technical: Can produce dramatically higher grain yields.
• Social: Uneven benefits because cannot be used by all farmers, may increase inequality among social classes and regions.
• Ecological: HYV seeds are genetically uniform and requiring irrigation, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides. Consequently they encourage loss biodiversity, increase soil erosion, groundwater contamination and depletion of fresh water.
Alternative agricultural techniques such as multi-cropping, crop rotation, biological nitrogen fixation and biological pest control are suppressed or ignored.
• Cultural: New production methods (modernization) and grains displaces or devalues subsistence production and traditional agricultural practices.
• Political: Increases state power over agricultural and aggregate gains in production may be used to avoid structural changes such as land reform.
• Academic: Research focus on increasing yeilds through technology conceals the social causes of hunger.